Did Blue Creek’s Early Completion and Investor Repositioning Just Shift Warrior Met Coal's (HCC) Investment Narrative?
In recent months, Warrior Met Coal reported strong first-quarter results with revenue rising by more than half and adjusted EBITDA increasing by a very large amount year over year, while major construction spending at its Blue Creek mine was essentially completed ahead of schedule.
At the same time, institutional investors including Mudita Advisors, Mohnish Pabrai, and T. Rowe Price reshaped their positions, offering a rare window into how professional capital is responding to Warrior Met Coal’s rapid operational progress and evolving risk profile.
We’ll now examine how Blue Creek’s early completion and cost transition might reshape Warrior Met Coal’s investment narrative for long-term investors.
Warrior Met Coal Investment Narrative Recap
To own Warrior Met Coal, you need to believe that Blue Creek’s completion can offset steelmaking coal price pressure and justify the company’s recent growth in volumes and earnings. The key short term catalyst is how quickly Blue Creek’s lower cost tons and higher production influence margins and cash generation, while the biggest risk remains weaker global steel demand and pricing. Recent Q1 results and guidance reaffirmation do not materially change that core risk reward balance.
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Rosebud Coal Mine in Montana Has Laid Off More Than 60 Workers After Mild Winter
Following a mild winter, mining company Westmoreland laid off more than a fifth of its workforce at the Rosebud Coal Mine with 27 layoffs in March and 36 layoffs in April. Currently, 223 people work at the mine that provides coal to the Colstrip power plant.
Director of external affairs Jon Heroux told the Gazette that sales were down recently because of a warm winter that reduced demand to Montana’s grid and the associated Colstrip plant that provides power to it.
Sen. Steve Daines and Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte stand in a coal seam during a tour of the Rosebud Mine in 2024. Leading the tour is mine manager Ken Wooley, right, and Westmoreland Mining CEO Martin Purvis.
Photo: LARRY MAYER, BILLINGS GAZETTE
“It was a pretty warm winter for us all, so it just was a market demand thing,” Heroux said. “But what we're expecting is — we're hoping to have everybody back by the end of July.”
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Respect Electricity: A CORESafety Daily Reminder
Electricity is one of the most significant hazards in mining. Whether you work in a coal mine, surface mine or other metal/nonmetal operation, electrical equipment is everywhere. Power cables, substations, drills, pumps, generators, conveyors, battery chargers and mobile equipment all create serious risks if they are not handled correctly.
Unlike some hazards, electricity cannot always be seen, heard or smelled. A damaged cable, faulty ground or exposed wire can seriously injure a miner in seconds. Electrical accidents can cause burns, shocks, arc flashes, explosions, fires or electrocution. Wet conditions, metal tools and confined work areas can increase the risk even more.
One of the most important things that miners can do is stay alert around energized equipment. Never assume a circuit or cable is safe just because it looks normal. Always follow lockout/tagout procedures before servicing or repairing equipment. Lockout/tagout means disconnecting power, locking the energy source and verifying that equipment cannot restart unexpectedly.
Miners should also inspect electrical equipment before each shift. Damaged cords, missing insulation, loose connections, broken plugs or exposed wires must be reported immediately. Never use damaged electrical tools or extension cords.
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Record Power Burn Expected This Summer as Coal Retirements and Data Centers Drive Gas Demand
U.S. natural gas supply is expected to reach a record 117 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) this summer, including 111.7 Bcf/d of dry gas production, but growing demand from liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, data center load, industrial activity, and power generation is absorbing much of that growth, leaving less gas available for storage refill and a thinner cushion heading into next winter, according to the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA).
NGSA, the Washington, D.C.–based trade association representing natural gas producers and marketers, said in a summer outlook issued May 13 that total U.S. natural gas supply is forecast to rise 4.4 Bcf/d from last summer to 117 Bcf/d, while total demand is projected to surge 6.4 Bcf/d to 108.7 Bcf/d.
While LNG exports are expected to lead demand growth, rising 4.3 Bcf/d to 19.9 Bcf/d, power burn is forecast to increase 2.0 Bcf/d to 40.3 Bcf/d, remaining the largest U.S. gas demand sector, it projects.
NGSA suggests that the variables in supply-demand balance will exert broadly flat pressure on natural gas prices compared with last summer, though storage dynamics point to a tighter refill season. Henry Hub spot prices averaged about $2.70/MMBtu in April, below the roughly $3.10/MMBtu average in summer 2025, while the average summer 2026 futures price of $2.92/MMBtu suggests the market is already pricing in below-average storage builds and resilient demand.
U.S. natural gas storage, notably, is projected to end summer near 3,662 Bcf—a 10% year-over-year decline—as the refill pace materially slows compared to last summer. Total injections are forecast at 1,772 Bcf, compared with 2,210 Bcf last summer, while average daily injection rates are expected to fall to 8.28 Bcf/d from 9.91 Bcf/d. Despite starting the injection season above 2025 levels, NGSA projects end-of-summer inventories will sit roughly 106 Bcf below the five-year average heading into winter.
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Goodbye LNG, Hello Coal
Global coal trade is surging as the world’s energy crisis continues. Data from March and April is painting a clear picture about the global scramble to secure coal and the role U.S. exporters are playing in meeting rising demand.
According to reporting from The Financial Times, global coal imports are on track to reach their third-highest monthly level on record. Even nations that were attempting to move away from coal have put those plans in reverse as LNG prices soar.
In April, global coal deliveries to South Korea, Japan and the European Union surged 27% from a year earlier, according to data from BIMCO, the world’s biggest shipowners’ association, while natural gas-fired electricity fell sharply.
In April, coal power generation in Japan surged 11.1% as gas power plunged 12.9%. In South Korea, coal power rose 39.7% from the previous April. Reuters noted that Asian spot LNG prices have surged 62% since the start of the war, dwarfing a 13% rise in Newcastle coal prices, the benchmark for Asia.
U.S. exports are rising in key markets
U.S. trade data from March clearly reflects how Asia, Africa and Europe are increasing U.S. imports and paying a premium. The price for U.S. coal exports was up 10.7% year-over-year in March with some buyers paying more than double the price they paid in February.
U.S. exports to Indonesia, South Korea and Morocco are all up significantly year-over-year. Notably, U.S. exports to India jumped more than 1.2 million short tons from February to March as the war with Iran shutdown the Strait of Hormuz and set off the scramble for LNG alternatives.
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